So it seems Israel is planning a full scale invasion of Lebanon, their 3rd since the 1970s. Israel launched separate invasions in 1978 and 1982. Ostensibly, the move is designed to drive out Hezbollah terrorists who have frequently launched attacks into northern Israel, just as their previous invasions were designed to drive out PLO terrorists who launched attacks into northern Israel.
Just as with the previous invasions, Israel’s move will likely have two results: The terror threat from southern Lebanon will be briefly contained and the Lebanese government will be severely weakened. Israel as every right to defend itself and those who criticize the government for confronting Hezbollah extremists when others refuse to do so clearly demonstrate an anti-Israel bias.
Israel’s retaliation however, does come with risks. Lebanon was well on its way to recovery after the devastating civil war of the 70s and 80s and finally managed to expel Syrian forces last year. Its government and military are both extremely weak and have been unable to exert control over the entire country, especially in the south. Israel’s attack and expected ground invasion will further weaken the government, which is one of the few pro-Western governments in that region. If the Lebanese government falls, it will create yet another Lebanese power vacuum, opening the door for Syrian re-occupation, which would prove even more devastating for Israel.
While Israel certainly has a right to defend itself, it would be wise for the IDF to consider a more strategic and covert plan of attack rather than the all out assault that is likely to occur within days, if not hours. Truth be told, Hezbollah must be destroyed along with its backers in Iran and Syria. Confronting Hezbollah by destroying Lebanon is in many ways a distraction, the real threat lies in Tehran.
The threat of a wider conflict is becoming very real and if it does Israel’s security situation will be vastly deteriorated and even the presence of a nuclear deterrent is meaningless when the enemy is within your midst.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2006-07-21-lebanon-israel_x.htm
